NFL playoffs gambling guide Locks props trends what to avoid more for the 2020 conference championships

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Now that all the dust has settled, we finally have our NFL final four. The and battle it out this Sunday afternoon to decide who will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, while the and play Sunday night for the last spot in the Super Bowl.Both home teams are favored this week, and the spreads of both of these matchups have been hovering out seven to 7.5 points. Below, we will analyze which bets I'm high on, which bets you should avoid and then some long shots I'm interested in.Let's jump in now. All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.Top three locks over 109.5 rushing yards over 239.5 pa sing yardsTitans +7.5Henry rushed for 182 yards against the in the wild Elfrid Payton Jersey -card round and 195 yards against the in the divisional round. Both of those defenses are two of the best in the NFL, and I have no reason to believe that Henry will not be able to replicate his succe s on the ground against Kansas City. When the Titans played the Chiefs in Week 10, Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Take the over here.Rodgers has thrown for over 240 yards six times this season. He only threw for 104 yards against the 49ers in Week 12, but Omari Spellman Jersey if this game goes how many think it will go, the Packers will need to be throwing the ball a lot. Rodgers also has a personal vendetta against the 49ers for pa sing over him in the 2005 NFL Draft, and there is no better way to get some revenge than by preventing the 49ers from reaching the Super Bowl with a big performance. Whether the Packers win or lose this game, I think Rodgers will pa s for at least 240 yards. The Chiefs appear to be the best team remaining in the playoffs and are on a seven-game win streak, but they are running into a team of destiny. There aren't many people who expected the Titans to be in this situation -- one game away from the Super Bowl. Hardly anyone expected them to beat the Patriots and then the No. 1 seed Ravens, both on the road. I'm going to take the Titans to win this game, and if they don't, I think they can cover 7.5 points.Popular bets to avoidPackers-49ers Over 45 Under 5.5 receptions -137Packers +290There is a lot of money coming in on the Packers and 49ers to score more than 45 collective points, but I think there's a po sibility that will not happen. It's interesting that 45 points is the exact point total both teams scored in Week 12, when the 49ers blew out the Packers, 37-8. This game could end up being a defensive showdown. Both teams have incredible pa s rushers who can get to the quarterback in a hurry, and both have been spotty when it comes to putting up big points. Even if the 49ers blow out the Packers again, I think it won't be as bad as Green Bay's Week 12 showing. I was surprised to see that Hill's under for receptions was favored by that much. The last time Hill played the Titans, he set a new career-high in receptions with 11 for 157 yards and a touchdown. He only caught three pa ses last week against the , but I think Andy Reid will try to get his star wideout going with a Super Bowl appearance on the line. I'm going to have to explain this Packers' moneyline pick, because I also have it RJ Barrett Jersey ranked fairly high when it comes to ranking moneyline value. I like that people are ready to throw it all on the moneyline for the Packers, but don't throw all your eggs in one basket. I say this because I think there's a better po sibility of the 49ers winning this game but not covering the spread than the Packers winning straight up.Top longshot props to score two or more touchdowns +400 first to score a touchdown +550Titans and Under parlay +460Jones has scored two Walter Frazier Jersey more more touchdowns in seven games this season, including last week against the . I think there's a good chance it happens again this Sunday against a 49ers defense that ranks just 22nd in preventing TDs in the red zone. Williams scored the first touchdown for the Chiefs last week, and it was just the first of three he would score against the Texans. There's no way the Chiefs start off as slow as they did last week, and I think they strike first -- and strike first with Williams.If the Titans beat the Chiefs, then the game is going to go how Tenne see wants it to go. That means that Henry is going to have another magnificent game and the Titans are going to control time of po se sion. If the Titans win, then I don't see the over hitting.Trends to consider1. -- though there hasn't been a clear ATS advantage for the home team (better seed) in the conference Jared Harper Jersey title games over the last decade, we should note that over the last 20 years, there have been 13 conference title matchups with a spread of seven points or greater. The underdog went 10-3 ATS in that stretch, most recently with the covering in Foxborough two years ago. That makes it pretty difficult to lay the points in both matchups this week; I'd say at best you should think about taking either one or both 'dogs. 2. My good friend John Breech -- who was the only media member in the country who went 4-0 on his straight-up picks last week -- brought up this nugget : The good news for the Titans (and the 49ers) is that over past three years, teams that played on Saturday in the divisional round have gone 5-1 in the championship round. That's not a recent trend, either: Saturday teams have also gone 15-5 in the championship round over the past 10 years. Apparently, one extra day of rest can go a long way in the NFL.Ranking moneyline valueTitans +290Packers +29049ers -345Chiefs -345I think it's very po sible both underdogs could flat out win on Sunday. I even threw a little money on a parlay that includes Titans and Packers moneyline. Everyone is very high ASAP Ferg Jersey on the 49ers because they crushed the Packers in the regular season, but I'm just not convinced. Rodgers has won a Super Bowl while is making his second ever postseason start.Ranking six-point teaser optionsTitans +13.5Packers +13.549ers -1.5Chiefs -1.5Advantage teaser players are going to make the obvious play here and drop the favorites down through the key numbers of 7 and 3. But I would abandon that strategy this week, as I believe we're going to see at least one upset on Sunday. To me, the safer play is teasing the 'dogs both up to around two touchdowns, as I don't see either of these matchups being a blowout by the home team. My top picksSpread: Titans +7.5Total: Packers-49ers Under 45Teaser: Titans +13.5 with Packers +13.5Parlay: Titans +7.5 with Packers +7.5Player prop: Derrick Henry over 109.5 rushing yards
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